In 2010 the total iPads sold totaled over 14 million world-wide, the total tablet market rose to 19.7 million same year.
David Zeiler said that the “research firm IHS iSuppli expects sales of media tablets”, which are mainly iPads, go from “17.4 million units world-wide in 2010 to 202 million in 2015”. The overall market, which include tablets and pc-tablets, will go from the 19.7 million in 2010 to 242.3 million in 2015. The forecast for 2011 of iPads sold rise to over 20 million units.
The 2015 forecast in a first view could seem exaggerated, but if we consider that in the past CES show at Las Vegas 100 tablets were unveiled, well it is no such an exaggeration. It is clear that not all will reach retail market but the hype is on going.
Of this over 100 tablets 17 are exclusively eReaders, showing that the eBook trend is up and going and far away from a mere bubble waiting to burst and end, as some publishers may want.
In a not so far forecast he International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates that in 2011 will be sold more than 40 million tablets and in 2012 will be sold more than 70 million. IDC said that the USA has a 40% market share of tablets market.
As I go deep researching, the numbers keep building up. Leaving us, or at least me, with the clear view that tablets and eReaders are not the future, they are the present. A present that keeps up growing.
Let’s do some math: 2010 approx 20 million sold, 2011 forecast 40 million and 2012 more than 70 million. If my math is correct, by 2012, at least 130 million tablet sold.
Now, let’s think and assume that the per capita reading ratio in the world is one book per month. 12 books a year per device.
For the eReader market there are no official numbers as Amazon has denied to unveil its Kindle sell figure. We can only speculate with it. Amazon said that it had sold more than 8 million devices, so in order to not over grow the number, lets assume that a total of 10 million eReaders have been sold.
So, in 2010 a total of 240 million of ebooks sold. In 2011 some 720 million and by 2012 over 1.5 billion books. To this number we could add the eReaders figure and with that the total books sold could total the 2 billion figure by 2012.
You might say that it is an overstatement assuming a per capita of 12 books per year. Accustom to a ratio in Mexico of 2.9 books per year (including textbooks) you can say so, but let me finish my point and you will see that it is not a magnification.
In the ebook market we can find a trend of selfpub writers selling their work at a range between 99 cents and 2.99 dollars, boosting sales of the distributors like Amazon, Barnes & Noble and Smashwords, among others. If this trend and specially the 99 cent ebook club keeps building up, well the market, selfpub market, could top 1 billion dollar annually. Does anybody wants to be out of that market? I do not think so.
And now to deconstruct the per capita book purchase. Let’s be realistic, how many books do you buy a year. How many books you have standing by to fulfill its objective, that it is to be read? At least I have now 4 printed books and 5 ebooks (2 I bought as I was writing this down), and I keep buying books. How many are out there like me? I think a few (sarcastic). Said this, if we add the trend of the 99 cents price of selfpub authors, good books, that are cheap enough to buy them and stack them up until time is found, and a 12 books a year is not such a bad number.
But if it is still a high number, let say that just half of the tablet/eReader owner buy one ebook a month. The final number is slashed by half to just 1 billion. Looks like a good number anyways, do you want a chunk of it?
So with this present and the good future, who in his sane mind, would not want to be part of this, revolutionary ebook market.
For me, a Spanish language aspiring writer, the fact that this business is growing, the future suddenly turns bright. Lets jump on it before it gets over saturated.
One thing is certain, if the book is bad, poor written and un-professional, this billion dollar market will pass though you.
Before I close this long post I have to say that if you think, “there, he is only thinking of money”, let’s think about this, would you like that your work had a potential 130 million readers by end 2012? Would you like your work be permanently at the shelfs of the digital library not worried about its out-of-print status and your publisher denying the reprint of it? Would you like it?